iPredict Forum in Testing

The iPredict forum went into testing today. We're aiming for a live site launch next week.

Newstalk ZB on Sunday

I'll be on Newstalk ZB this Sunday morning at 9:20 talking to Garry Ward about iPredict.

Rare Tie in QV Stocks

The QV stocks, asking where in the country residential house prices would fall most, closed today in a rare tie between two binary stocks.

According to QV, residential property prices fell by 8% in both Auckland and Christchurch in the year ended December 2008.

So, for the first time, we had to convert the binary stocks to indexed, then judge Auckland and Christchurch stocks at $0.5000 each. Wellington closed at $0.

These QV contracts are a nice example of what makes prediction markets interesting - at least from my perspective. That perspective is from somebody who doesn't have even the first clue about property values. Running a prediction market contract gives me, and anybody in a similarly ignorant position, to find out from people who actually know about residential property, the best possible view about what is most likely to happen.

These contracts were a first for another reason, which is that they were sponsored by our friends at SuburbWatch. Check them out - if you're interested in timing the market and getting in at the bottom, this site can help.

iPredict on Nightline

TV3 have just visited our incredibly untidy office to film a piece for Nightline on our climate change contracts. Fingers crossed, we'll be on tonight's show at 10:40.

19 New Contracts Launched

iPredict launches 19 new contracts this morning covering politics, the economy, and our first foray into science with two contracts on climate change.

The full set of contracts launched today are:

FIJI.PM: Frank Bainimarama to lose position as Interim Prime Minister of Fiji in 2009
ZIM.MUGABE: Robert Mugabe to lose position as President of Zimbabwe in 2009
MP.CLARK: Helen Clark to leave Parliament in 2009
MP.CULLEN: Michael Cullen to leave Parliament in 2009
MP.ANDERTON: Jim Anderton to announce in 2009 he will not stand in next election
LEAD.GOFF.09: Phil Goff to be replaced as Labour leader in 2009
DL.KING.09: Annette King to be replaced as Labour deputy leader in 2009
NAT.MAORI.09: Maori/National agreement to be terminated in 2009
NAT.ACT.09: ACT/National agreement to be terminated in 2009
UNEM.DEC08: What will the unemployment rate for the December 2008 quarter be?
UNEM.MAR09: What will the unemployment rate for the March 2009 quarter be?
UNEM.JUN09: What will the unemployment rate for the June 2009 quarter be?
UNEM.SEP09: What will the unemployment rate for the September 2009 quarter be?
OCR.09.SUB45: OCR to go below 4.5% in 2009
OCR.09.SUB40: OCR to go below 4.0% in 2009
OCR.09.SUB35: OCR to go below 3.5% in 2009
OCR.09.SUB30: OCR to go below 3.0% in 2009
TEMP.2009: Global temperatures to be warmer in 2009 than 2008
TEMP.2009.HIGH: Global temperatures in 2009 to be highest ever

All but four of the contracts are binary. This is the result of demand: over 95% of all trading to date on iPredict has been on binary stocks.

Probably the newest aspect to these stocks is the introduction of two questions on climate change. 2009 is shaping to be an interesting year for climate science. There are, as I understand it, two camps in the climate change community. One says that greenhouse gases is a major driver of changes in climate. The second says changes in the Sun's energy output is responsible. What makes 2009 interesting is that these drivers are expected to head in opposite directions - greenhouse gas concentrations will continue their inevitable march upwards, but the Sun's energy is expected to continue falling. So which driver will temperatures tend to follow in 09?

We have more contracts in the works on petrol prices, mortgage rates and the weather, and possibly commodity prices.

GM.BAILOUT closed

GM.BAILOUT closed at $1 this morning. The US Treasury has loaned GM $4 billion and has committed to another loan of $5.4 billion on January 16.

Thanks for your patience on this contract. Onward and upwards!

Fourth Quarter Negative Growth? Ummm, Yes

Well it seems New Zealand is in for a fourth consecutive quarter of negative growth in GDP, at least according to early trading on our new recession stock. Our RECESSION.DEC08 contract launched at 70 cents about 15 minutes ago, and has just shot past 90.

Earlier today, Statistics NZ announced growth of -0.4% in production-based GDP and -0.7% growth in expenditure-based GDP in the September quarter.

It is hard to find any good news for the New Zealand economy anywhere in today's numbers, and based on that 90 cents, its hard to see any good news coming soon.

Merry Christmas!