Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Your daily arbitrage

Today's prices (9:55 am), at midpoint of bid-ask spread:


Note that Iowa event derivatives pay off based on which party gets the larger proportion of votes cast, not on specific individuals, and takes no account of electoral college machinations.

So: buy Obama on InTrade, sell him in Iowa (if you can; BetFair if not), sell McCain on InTrade, buy him back on BetFair.

Sounds like I need to open a BetFair account....

Addendum: Figured out table formatting...
Addendum 2: as of 11:15, InTrade Obama price is up to 0.62; McCain down to 0.375.