Wednesday, October 15, 2008

National Wins Leaders' Debate

National's chances of leading the next government increased by 5.1% last night according to iPredict traders, handing John Key a decisive victory over Helen Clark in the first leaders' debate.

Labour's re-election chances fell 4.4%.

By the end of the debate, Labour was a 30% likelihood of leading the next government, a significant increase from its position a week ago where it was tracking in the low twenties. However, this morning PM.LABOUR is trading down at 25 cents. Last week's gains have been largely undone.

As in share markets, price movements in prediction markets are caused by the arrival of new information and outcomes which are different from expectations. TVNZ commentators after the debate said that while the Prime Minister performed well, this was to expected, whereas Key in his first leaders' debate outperformed expectations.

Print media commentators generally agree, Audrey Young saying
She had by far the best campaign launch on Sunday but he wiped the floor on the debate.
John Armstrong:
While there was little to separate the pair in a pretty even contest, John Key has to be declared the winner of tonight’s debate…She was as rock solid as always, but predictable.
Fran O'Sullivan, however, gave the debate to Clark:
Clark scored best on the issue du jour - the international credit crisis. She has a post-election plan. Key doesn't.
Traders on iPredict are unequivocal: National's chances of an election victory increased sharply at Labour's expense, and on this measure victory in the first leaders' debate is National's.

Click on the chart for a larger view.

1 comment:

BroadArrow said...

Given that voter opinion is influenced more by media coverage and analysis of leaders' performance than the debate itself (because so few actually watch it), you would expect the market to match commentators. In effect, the market may even be factoring in likely coverage and its effects on voters.