Monday, November 24, 2008

Your Feedback: What Stocks for iPredict?

iPredict closed nine contracts this morning, and with the cupboard looking temporarily bare we thought it might be useful to let you know about contract suggestions before us, for a possible launch in the next few days.

In addition to core stocks for iPredict – political leadership and economics statistics, we have received many good and great ideas for forecasting. Here is a summary of requests, most of them, from users. What do you like? If you have more, please send them to us at stockidea@ipredict.co.nz

Our goal – as the market operator – is to run contracts which say something of consequence about the future. Traders' goals are, of course, different – the goal is to run contracts that satisfy both objectives.

Please note that iPredict is not authorised to run sports markets.

Update 28/11: iPredict is also not authorised to run entertainment contracts. We are authorised to run contracts that depend on "political, business, economic, sociological, or demographic events or circumstances".


Politics

National/Maori/Act/UnitedFuture longevity

Helen Clark appointments

Economics

Emissions Trading Scheme – what will carbon trade for?

Will oil be below US$40 a barrel before 1 Jan 2009?

Retail gas price to exceed NZ$5 on 1 Jan 2010, 1 Jan 2011, 1 Jan 2012

Mortgage rates

New Zealand visitor arrivals

Australian OCR-equivalent

Listed company profits

Fonterra payout

Bluff oyster prices

Social

Transmission Gully – construction to begin before 2011?

Cook Strait ferries on strike at Christmas/New year

Tolls implemented on Waterview Motorway

Science

Weather - rainfall totals?

SETI detects alien intelligence before 2010-2012

International

Mugabe to lose job in 2009

Other

The number 1 trader as reported on iPredicts rankings page at 5pm on 31 Dec 2008 will have a net worth at least $4,000.

33 comments:

Colonel said...

If the new stocks are going to be bundled, then it would be nice to lose the old bundles first.

From the list given, I really like:

- Helen Clark appointments
- Cook Strait ferries on strike at Christmas/New year

plenty of opportunity for rumours and scuttlebutt to have an effect on both of these.

Not so sure about:

- SETI detects alien intelligence before 2010-2012

as I believe this would sit at around 5c for the next few years, i.e. not much room for profit-taking over the course of the contract (although I can see it would be of interest).

- The number 1 trader as reported on iPredict's rankings page at 5pm on 31 Dec 2008 will have a net worth at least $4,000

I think you might have to make that 30 November (or raise to $5,000) as dibbo is setting a cracking pace!

Kingkarl said...

Looks good. Keep up the good work lads.

JC said...

do you keep a running track of the accuracy of predictions?

Anonymous said...

UK elections?

Australian elections or PMships (you could go to a state level too if you wanted to)?

Will John Key be rolled?

Will the National-ACT coalition go full term?

Will Roger Douglas last out his term? (or die, resign in frustration, or explode from pent-up neo-liberalism)

Graeme said...

1. The end of the recession date - 2009 1st, 2nd 3rd 4th quarter 2010...

2. Buildings consent numbers for new dwellings for 2009 - less than or greater than 20,000 pa

3. Immigration flow to Australia

4. Four lane road construction between Mercer and Hamilton to commence in 2009.

Holybastard said...

I think the "NO.1 trader as reported on iPredict's rankings..." contract gives enormous unfair advantage to the trader(s) closest to the targeted dollar amount, and huge disadvantages to the rest.

jojo said...

I am curious as to why you are NOT permitted to take sports bets?...Isn't that against freedom, free enterprise and competition?...Sport 'predictions' are so much fun...You should challenge the government/authorities against this unfair control and nanny state tendencies....Like to konw your response and other members' comments regarding this. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

TAB jojo

plutoman said...

How about which country will host the 2018 football World Cup? Does that count as a sports bet or not?

jojo said...

In TAB one cannot "TRADE" by buying or selling, as in iPredict.

Anonymous said...

UK general election before the end of February 2009

jojo said...

Helen Clark and Peter Davies will have their first baby before December 2015.

kingkarl said...

Haha, as if Helen Clarke will ever have a baby. Would it be possible to start a forum where we could discuss stocks etc?

jojo said...

The baby could be their own or adopted or gifted or cloned or whateva.

Colonel said...

Looks like those top traders either took their money out or lost a lot today :-o

Maybe that $4,000 net worth by 31/12 is elusive, after all.

Greg said...

Re: Colonel

Yes! Relative to the top iPredict trader, I've had my best day ever :-)

Dibbo, jmex - care to explain your sudden drop/withdrawal?

JC said...

my vote would be for no forums, no sports trading, no celebrity trading (or reproductive trading for that matter).

Anonymous said...

would like to see ratio/% of stocks sold long or short is this possible???

Holybastard said...

I would like to suggest a feature. Can I choose not to load certain stocks when clicked the "browse stock" link because I intend not to trade on certain stocks. Hence saving time on loading the page!? Thanks.

dibbo said...

Greg...speaking for myself, ipredict doesn't pay interest on deposit balances so in the absence of any compelling trades at the moment i've taken some cash out. As the ipredict community grows (and contract number and liquidity grows with it) I'd imagine that running bigger cash balances than say $1-1.5k will make sense for successful traders.

Incidentally I agree with HB that ipredict should not launch a contract based on the top trader - presumably if there was just one top trader clearly past $4k that trader would short the trade after passing the $4k mark (which he/she would know ahead of the market) and then withdraw their cash to subsequently take their balance back below $4k a few days later and after the contract price had risen, making some quick profit as the contract then collapsed!

Matt Burgess said...

Thanks all for the comments - launching some longer term stocks tonight on economic variables - inflation and exchange rate - and will launch some more on Friday most likely based on feedback received here. Lots of good ideas here, and we've also received a good number via email as well. Thanks all so much for the wealth of ideas.

Jojo - absolutely the restriction preventing us offering sports contracts is against freedom, as is all regulation. The trade off is that we get to offer contracts on anything at all - many countries including the US (with a single small exception) and all Australian states ban real money prediction markets outright. Turns out a lot of people don't like freedom. You know who you are. :-)

We are fortunate, by the way, the Securities Commission gave us such a fair go - getting their attention in the middle of a financial crisis (Honover, etc) can't be taken for granted.

Colonel, Graeme - like all your suggestions. Like to do something on Frdiay with at least one of your suggestions.

Jojo, Dibbo - point taken re: top trader. Not a good idea given the manipulation problems it creates.

Plutoman - we really have to be careful going near sports, so a bit reluctant to try the patience of our regulator.

Anon - yes, top traders by % return is a long overdue addition to the site. It is on our list. As are forums (sorry JC).

Matt Burgess said...

Long day...

Hanover not Honover :-)

Luke H said...

I'm a HUGE fan of bundled stocks ... so yeah, if you could clean up the Bundles page and add some new bundles, that would be AWESOME.

:-)

JC said...

yeah i knew forums would be on the agenda. bring forth the bile

Matt Burgess said...

Hi Luke, the clean up of the bundles page is overdue - with any luck it will be sorted tomorrow.

sifter said...

I appreciate the HUGE improvement in the graphs too team!

Dibbo said...

Matt - who was your advisor on the starting values for the inflation stocks? Unless petrol does a very abrupt about face and the global recession lifts my guess is that the starting value for the Sept 09 stock is out by a factor of 4. Hopefully the Reserve Bank was not the advisor! Disclosure: I'm now short this and other inflation stocks.

Anonymous said...

And while you're doing general cleanup: the history page. Currently, it loads your entire trading history before paginating it with javascript. This makes it unusable for heavy traders. The last thousand or so transactions should be more than enough...

Anonymous said...

Last thousand?!

Colonel said...

The Cancel Order(s) button under Active Orders on the Portfolio page seems to be broken this morning?

Anybody else having this problem?

Anonymous said...

Yeah, it isn't working for me - which is not good!

Colonel said...

LOL - makes it hard to react to breaking news stories!

Glad it's not just me; I have emailed info@ipredict about it.

Colonel said...

It's working again now :-)