Thursday, December 4, 2008

New Stocks: OCR January 29

Yesterday saw the launch of five new contracts asking what the Reserve Bank will do in its 29 January OCR announcement. Previously we have launched new OCR contracts after the previous one, but this time we went ahead of today's announcement to see what effect today's announcement would have on expectations for January 29.

The theory was that a big drop today would quell xpectations of another large drop next month. So did it?

The strongest response was for a 75 point drop on 29 January, this stock settled 11 cents higher than just before 9am today.

The next strongest ressponse was on the 100 point stock, this was about level with 75 points prior to the announcement but fell from 18 cents to 12 cents in the two hours after today's OCR announcement.

Other stocks were more sedate. Stock for a 50 point stock increased, but much more gradually than the 75 point stock, settling around 3 cents higher at this time. A 50 point drop is the market's pick for the 29 January OCR announcement.

Stock for a 25 point drop (not shown on the chart) bounced downwards but ended exactly where it started at about 9%.

You can, by the way, produce your own charts for any active or closed stock using our web tools page. The chart above was produced using this url call. The bottom of the web tools page lists the full set of arguments available to you - you'll need the end and count arguments to see closed stock data, here for example.

9 comments:

jojo said...

[Sorry to post here but I had a question on the topic : ""GM.BAILOUT Contract Definition Clarifications", but did not get a response. So I am posting it here to draw your attention to my last post there. Can you please clarify]...Thanks.

Anonymous said...

-"On 17 November, GM filed its first Section 136 loan application for retooling funds (earlier post) with the Department of Energy, related to eight specific, high fuel-efficiency projects, in the total amount of $3.6 billion."

-"A second application, related to additional high-mileage vehicle and powertrain programs in development, is targeted for submission this week, and is estimated at $4.7 billion."

-"In both cases, GM has made significant fuel efficiency-related investments that, as a result of having been made prior to the enactment of Section 136 funding, do not qualify for such funding."

What does this mean? That GM can not claim any of the retooling funds and thus must rely on a bailout unless the congress changes the purpose of the funds. That said they only require $4 Billion for the remainder of the year.

Matt Burgess said...

I've attempted an answer on the GM post - although I'm not certain I understand the question. Tell me if I missed something.

JC said...

whats the ETA on forums?

Luke H said...

I can't get the RSS feed to work. Is it broken?

Matt Burgess said...

JC - forums in January

Luke - which RSS feed, can you give me the address

Luke H said...

The only one I can see is this one from the page source of the front page:
<

link href="Main.php?do=rss&feed=listing" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="iPredict Stock Listings RSS Feed"

>

Matt Burgess said...

Thanks, I've let my guys know about the feed, hopefully fixed tomorrow.

Matt Burgess said...

RSS is fixed now, thanks for the heads up.

Matt