GM.BAILOUT Contract Definition Clarifications Updated 19/11

Four clarifications to our GM.BAILOUT contract:

1. This contract will pay $1 only if President Bush approves a bail out. The contract is unaffected by decisions made by his successor's administration.

2. $1 billion = $1,000,000,000

3. A decision by the US Government to take over some (or all) of GM's obligations to its creditors will be considered a transfer to GM. If the value of this transfer is unclear, iPredict will use the average of the maximum estimated values reported on cnn.com, news.bbc.co.uk and nytimes.com.

4. A loan guarantee by the US Government will not count as a transfer to GM.

These clarifications have been added to the contract definition on the site.

Clarification 19/11/08:

5. For the purposes of this contract, funds committed to GM by the US Government prior to the contract's launch on 14 November do not contribute to the $5 billion minimum transfer total.

6. Relaxation of conditions on funds committed to GM by the US Government prior to the contract's launch on 14 November will NOT contribute to the $5 billion minimum transfer total, because this results in no new transfers to GM. Specifically, a decision to relax restrictions on a US$25 billion loan previously made to GM will NOT contribute to the US$5 billion minimum transfer total, because this results in no new transfers to GM.

7. If GM defaults on a loan, and the date of that default is after the launch of this contract, and that loan was guaranteed by the US Government, then the value of the additional liability the US Government bears as a result of default WILL contribute to the $5 billion minimum transfer total, even if that guarantee was made prior to the launch of this contract. If the value of this transfer is unclear, iPredict will use the average of the maximum estimated values reported on cnn.com, news.bbc.co.uk and nytimes.com.

8. A bail out that is formally and fully approved by any means during the term of the Bush Administration will be considered for the purposes of this contract to have been approved by President Bush.