Thursday, November 6, 2008

Peters fan!

In the last 5 minutes, MP.Peters jumped from about 17% to about 22%. Prices didn't move in VOTE.NZFirst or in Peters.Tauranga. So somebody knows something we don't (perhaps about Ron Mark's chances), or a Peters partisan just wanted to buy a lot of stake in it in a hurry. I'm shorting in response, but has anybody seen any decent polling on Ron Mark's chances?

If Vote.National is right at 0.4917 and Vote.Act is right at $0.3467, then PM.National ought to be closer to $0.94 than $0.79. One side of the equation is wrong. Which one?

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