Wednesday, November 5, 2008

TV3 Leaders' Debate Analysis

The TV3 leaders' debate on Monday night was telling for how little was revealed by the leaders that wasn't already known. Both leaders, and John key in particular, stayed on-message for much of the debate.

The most notable feature of the debate was the near-complete absence of moment in the price of PM.National. It was a flat line the whole way, but for a very minor upwards price movement about 10 minutes from the debate's end. Traders were sending a message: we have heard this before.

National's flat line was particularly striking given the rollercoaster ride that stock had been on a few hours earlier. In the morning, news was that Peter Dunne had been offered thousands of dollars from a businessman after agreeing to oppose international fishing restrictions. This news sent National's stock falling 4% in the space of an hour. However, the afternoon saw a strong recovery for National following John Key receiving endorsements from former rugby stars Michael Jones and Inga Tuigamala.

So the contrast between earlier price movements and the leaders' debate itself was striking.

PM.LABOUR did move during the debate, downwards in two steps and but recovered to where it started shortly after the debate's end. There was an initial downward's movement as the leaders spoke about trust at about 7:20pm, but the price quickly returned to where it was in the minutes following. This was followed by a larger downwards price adjustment of about 1% at about 7:35pm as the leaders discussed longevity and change. Traders responded negatively to the Prime Minister on this point.

However, this price movement did not stick either, PM.LABOUR returning right back to its initial price in the minutes following the debate.

With neither party's chances of leading the next government making any significant change end to end in the debate, this debate was a draw.


Anonymous said...

I agree with Brian Edwards that the poll posted at the end of the debate tonight was false. There are some very interesting polls happening casually in Auckland that show the difference between the two main parties is infintessimal. The media are trying to influence a groundswell of support for National by polling a debate at the end. The commentary afterwards included two individuals who were party affiliated in Michelle Boag and Brian Edwards. How does that further the public's information base when these two people were espousing the particular views of those they represented. Shame on you Brian and Michelle and TV One for putting them forward. A political analyst would have been much better in that slot. Is New Zealand so devoid of any younger people who could put their thoughts together. Our T.V. coverage is peopled with oldies (I am one and I object to this) whose views we have known for decades. Bring on some new spunk. Greg Boyed did not chair the debate well either but rather let Brian Edwards ramble on about issues that weren't even covered in the leaders debate. We need colleges to train debaters. What a shambles.
Posted : Robyn

Greg said...

Off-topic here, but congratulations to jmex - as I understand it, iPredict's first major trader to double their money!

Crampton said...

The first who started at $1000 to double. Some of us started with much less than $1000; we don't rank order by gains. :>

Anonymous said...

I was trying to overcome that with my wording, but I thought I'd eventually provoke a complaint!

$1000 to $2000 in this amount of time is an excellent achievement, it must be said.